Fitch Ratings has downgraded the United States government’s credit rating, citing rising debt at the federal, state, and local levels and a “steady deterioration in standards of governance” over the past two decades.
The rating was cut Tuesday one notch to AA+ from AAA, the highest possible rating. The new rating is still well into investment grade.
It’s only the second time in the nation’s history that its credit rating has been cut. In 2011, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its prize AAA rating after a prolonged fight over the government’s borrowing limit. The Government Accountability Office, in a 2012 report, estimated that the 2011 budget standoff raised Treasury’s borrowing costs by $1.3 billion that year.
Fitch cited the worsening political divisions around spending and tax policy as a key reason for its decision. It said U.S. governance has declined relative to other highly rated countries and it noted “repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
Fitch had warned May 24 that it could remove the government’s triple-A rating as Congress again struggled to raise the borrowing limit. A deal was reached nearly a week later that suspended the limit and cut about $1.5 trillion from the government deficit over the next decade.
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Biden administration officials strongly criticized Fitch’s move. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it was “arbitrary” and “based on outdated data.”
Another factor in Fitch’s decision is that it expects the U.S. economy to tumble into a “mild recession” in the final three months of this year and early next year. Economists at the Federal Reserve made a similar forecast this spring but then reversed it in July and said growth would slow but a recession would likely be avoided.
